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Millions of adults in the United States have seriously considered shooting another person at some point in their lives, representing a massive and previously unmeasured group at risk of committing armed violence. By understanding the characteristics and behaviors of these individuals, public health experts hope to develop better strategies to stop injuries before they happen. These conclusions come from a national study published recently in the journal JAMA Network Open.
The researchers initiated this project to fill a gap in our current understanding of firearm violence. Medical and law enforcement records routinely track the aftermath of shootings, such as emergency room visits and homicides. In 2023 alone, hospitals recorded over 116,000 emergency department visits for gun-related assaults.
Before any physical harm occurs, an individual must first conceptualize the act of shooting someone else. Until now, public health officials have lacked clear data on how frequently the general public experiences these thoughts. Identifying the number of people who fall into this category provides a new metric for evaluating the risk of interpersonal violence across the country.
Brian Hicks, a psychologist and psychiatry professor at the University of Michigan Medical School, led the research team. Mark Ilgen, a researcher with the Department of Veterans Affairs and the University of Michigan, coauthored the paper. Together, they sought to characterize this hidden population and find potential opportunities for intervention.
Their work stems from a need to shift violence prevention away from reacting to tragedies and toward proactive safety measures. By catching a dangerous idea before it becomes a physical reality, communities might be able to save lives. This requires knowing who is having these thoughts, who they intend to target, and what steps they have already taken to prepare.
To gather this information, the researchers conducted a large-scale poll called the National Firearms, Alcohol, Cannabis, and Suicide survey. Between May and September of 2025, they reached out to adults across the country using text messaging and mailing addresses. A total of 7,034 people opted into the study and completed the questionnaire.
Because an initial survey sample rarely matches the exact demographics of the entire country, the team used a statistical tool known as survey weighting. This mathematical adjustment ensures the final results accurately reflect the broader population based on age, sex, race, income, and political affiliation. With these mathematical adjustments in place, the responses provided a reliable snapshot of the national landscape.
The data revealed that 7.3% of adults in the United States have thought about shooting someone at some point in their lives. This percentage translates to roughly 19.4 million people nationwide. When asked about the past year specifically, 3.3% of respondents reported having these thoughts, which equates to more than 8.6 million individuals.
Owning a weapon did not make a person more likely to experience these violent ideas. The data showed that individuals who do not own guns reported thoughts of shooting someone at the same rates as those who already keep firearms in their homes. However, a desire to commit violence prompted some unarmed individuals to consider acquiring a weapon.
Among the survey respondents who had thought about shooting someone, 21.3% said they had considered getting a gun specifically to carry out the act. Translated to the broader population, this means roughly 4.1 million adults have thought about purchasing a firearm to harm another person. A smaller fraction, representing about 1.5 million people, reported actually bringing a weapon to a specific location with the intent to shoot someone.
The researchers also asked respondents who they had thought about shooting. Participants could select multiple answers to this question. Just over 50% of the people who reported these thoughts said they imagined shooting an enemy. About 25% pictured a stranger, such as someone they might have a conflict with in a public space.
Other targets reflected a mix of personal relationships and broader societal figures. Around 10% of those with thoughts of shooting someone identified a family member as the target, and similar percentages named current or former romantic partners. Some respondents reported thoughts consistent with politically motivated violence, with about 14% considering a government official and nearly 7% considering a police officer or military member.
Demographic analysis showed that certain groups were more likely to report thoughts of shooting others. Men reported these thoughts more often than women. Younger adults experienced them more frequently than older individuals.
Race and geography also played a role in the results. Black respondents reported these ideas at higher rates than white respondents. People living in urban areas and Midwestern states were also more likely to report having considered shooting someone. The researchers noted that these demographics closely mirror the populations most frequently victimized by interpersonal firearm violence.
Income and educational background showed distinct patterns as well. Those with household incomes under $50,000 and lower educational attainment were more likely to report thoughts of shooting someone in the previous year. Differences across political ideologies were not statistically significant, meaning Republicans, Democrats, and Independents reported these thoughts at similar rates.
The study highlighted several behaviors that could serve as warning signs or opportunities for help. About 1.5% of the total sample, or roughly 4 million people, said they had told someone else about their thoughts of shooting another person. Sharing this information creates a potential opening for family members or friends to intervene before the situation escalates.
Some individuals took proactive steps to prevent themselves from causing harm. Half of one percent of respondents said they had given their gun to someone else for safekeeping during a personal crisis. Another 1.5% said they would consider temporarily handing over their weapon in the future.
These findings support the use of specific legal and policy tools aimed at reducing firearm injuries. Extreme risk protection orders, commonly known as red flag laws, allow a judge to temporarily remove guns from a person who poses a danger to themselves or others. In the 21 states where these laws exist, family members or law enforcement can use the fact that someone spoke about shooting another person as grounds to request temporary disarmament.
Waiting periods for firearm purchases offer another layer of prevention. Since many unarmed people consider buying a gun to shoot someone, delaying the transaction gives them time to cool off. This delay might stop an impulsive thought from turning into a fatal encounter.
In a press release about the study, Hicks explained the gravity of the data. “While most people who these thoughts don’t act on them, the number is so high that the small proportion who do act turns into tens of thousands of fatal and nonfatal firearm injuries each year,” he said.
He also noted that preventing violence involves addressing both harm to others and harm to oneself. “That does not include the toll of self-harm with firearms, which accounts for over half of firearm-related deaths. The more we can understand factors that can reduce risk, the better.”
The researchers acknowledged several limitations in their work. The survey was conducted entirely online and only in English. This format likely excluded people who do not have reliable access to the internet or who speak other languages.
Additionally, survey questions rely on participants interpreting the wording correctly and answering honestly. Even with statistical weighting, the responses might contain unmeasured biases based on who chose to opt into the study and who decided to ignore the invitations.
Moving forward, the research team plans to look deeper into other factors connected to violent ideas. Future analyses will examine how substance use problems and mental health conditions relate to thoughts of shooting others. The scientists will also investigate whether these thoughts correlate with risky habits, such as carrying a weapon in public, storing guns unlocked, or firing a weapon after drinking alcohol. The research provides a new baseline for understanding violent ideation in the United States.
The study, “Prevalence of Thoughts of Shooting Others Among US Adults,” was authored by Brian M. Hicks and Mark A. Ilgen.
